Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.
Thurlow, James; Tarp, Finn; McCoy, Simon; Hai, Nguyen Manh; Breisinger, Clemens; and Arndt, Channing (2011) 'The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam,' Journal of Globalization and Development: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 6.
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The Berkeley Electronic Press
- Journal of Globalization and Development
- Policy Analysis
- The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam
- Journal article by James Thurlow, Finn Tarp, Simon McCoy, Nguyen Manh Hai, Clemens Breisinger, Channing Arndt
- Publication date:
- September 2011
- Copyright holder:
- © Berkeley Electronic Press
New Directions in Development Economics (2010)