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UNU-WIDER Article: The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Support functions

A teenager wears torn rubber boots in a muddy local market in Bac Ha, Viet Nam. As of 2005 figures, half the world population—more than 3 billion people–is estimated to live on less than USD 2.50 a day. Bac Ha, Viet Nam. UN Photo/Kibae Park.

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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Thurlow, James; Tarp, Finn; McCoy, Simon; Hai, Nguyen Manh; Breisinger, Clemens; and Arndt, Channing (2011) 'The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam,' Journal of Globalization and Development: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 6.
DOI: 10.2202/1948-1837.1058
Available at: http://www.bepress.com/jgd/vol2/iss1/art6

Publisher:
The Berkeley Electronic Press
Series:
Policy Analysis
Volume:
2
Title:
The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam
Authors:
Journal article by James Thurlow, Finn Tarp, Simon McCoy, Nguyen Manh Hai, Clemens Breisinger, Channing Arndt
Publication date:
September 2011
Copyright holder:
© Berkeley Electronic Press
Project:
New Directions in Development Economics

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