Skip to Content

UNU-WIDER Logo

30 Years of economics for development

WP/98 Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam little changed from a baseline (no crises) path in terms of aggregate indicators including the poverty rate. An effective stimulus package has the potential to offset one third of the increase in poverty caused by the financial crisis leaving poverty rates below the (no crises) baseline.
Publisher:
UNU-WIDER
Series:
WIDER Working Paper
Volume:
2010/98
Title:
WP/98 Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam
Authors:
James Thurlow, Finn Tarp, Simon McCoy, Nguyen Manh Hai, Clemens Breisinger, and Channing Arndt
Publication date:
September 2010
ISBN 13 Web:
978-92-9230-336-5
Copyright holder:
© UNU-WIDER
Copyright year:
2010
Keywords:
economic crisis, growth, poverty, Vietnam
JEL:
R0, R5, R14, R52
Project:
New Directions in Development Economics (2010)
Sponsor:
UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme by the governments of Denmark (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Finland (Ministry for Foreign Affairs), Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency—Sida) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development—DFID).
Format:
online and printed copies
Back to Top

^ Back to top

1995-2014 United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research

© CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGODisclaimer | Terms of Use
UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland
Tel: +358(0)9 6159911 | Fax: +358(0)9 61599333
mail: wider@wider.unu.edu/firstname.lastname@wider.unu.edu