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UNU-WIDER Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War

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A teenager wears torn rubber boots in a muddy local market in Bac Ha, Viet Nam. As of 2005 figures, half the world population—more than 3 billion people–is estimated to live on less than USD 2.50 a day. Bac Ha, Viet Nam. UN Photo/Kibae Park.

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WP/18 Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War

A common finding in the empirical civil war literature is that population size and per capita income are highly significant predictors of civil war incidence and onset. This paper shows that the common finding of population size and per capita income having a significant average effect on civil war risk in a world sample breaks down once country-and year-specific unobservables are accounted for. However, for Sub-Saharan Africa there continues to be a highly significant average effect of population size and per capita income on civil war risk that is robust to the use of country- and year-fixed effects and instrumental variable techniques.
Publisher:
UNU-WIDER
Series:
WIDER Working Paper
Volume:
2011/18
Title:
WP/18 Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War
Authors:
Markus Brückner
Publication date:
March 2011
ISBN 13 Web:
978-92-9230-381-5
Copyright holder:
© UNU-WIDER
Copyright year:
2011
Keywords:
Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War
JEL:
O10, O55, P0, Q0
Project:
African Development: Myths and Realities
Sponsor:
UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme by the governments of Denmark (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Finland (Ministry for Foreign Affairs), Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency—Sida) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development—DFID).
Format:
online

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