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An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting

This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. Based on the Blanchard-Quah methodology, we identify shocks to the changes in real exchange rate and output using a structural VAR (SVAR) model for these small open economies. Our finding that the real exchange rate innovations in the CFA franc zones are largely independent of domestic variables suggests that external influence is more important in the CFA zones. There is also some evidence that money demand shocks are more significant in the non-CFA franc zone countries. Finally the analyses suggest that shocks tend to persist in the non-CFA countries and less so in the CFA franc zone. A comparison of both the short-run and long-run responses of each franc zone and the non-CFA countries suggests that being in the monetary union ensures that the CFA franc zone respond differently to macroeconomic shocks, and have more stable macroeconomies.
Publisher:
UNU-WIDER
Series:
WIDER Research Paper
Volume:
2004/09
Title:
An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting
Authors:
Simeon Coleman
Publication date:
2004
ISSN Web:
1810-2611
ISBN Web:
9291905860
ISBN 13 Web:
9789291905867
Copyright holder:
© UNU-WIDER
Copyright year:
2004
Keywords:
structural VAR models, innovations, Sub-Saharan Africa
JEL:
C32, O11, F33, P51
Project:
Long-term Development in the CFA-zone Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa
Sponsor:
UNU-WIDER acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme by the governments of Denmark (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Finland (Ministry for Foreign Affairs), Norway (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency-Sida) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development).
Format:
online