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Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long Term Forecasts for Regional Integration

Economic emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India has fundamentally altered the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy. Using the new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, ASEAN economies have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.
Publisher:
UNU-WIDER
Series:
WIDER Research Paper
Volume:
2008/106
Title:
Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long Term Forecasts for Regional Integration
Authors:
David Roland-Holst, Jean-Pierre Verbiest, and Fan Zhai
Publication date:
December 2008
ISSN Web:
1810-2611
ISBN 13 Web:
9789292301620
Copyright holder:
© UNU-WIDER
Copyright year:
2008
Keywords:
globalization, integration, Asia
JEL:
F02, N15, O53
Project:
Southern Engines of Global Growth
Sponsor:
The governments of Denmark (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Finland (Ministry for Foreign Affairs), Norway (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency — Sida) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development).
Format:
online
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