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Working Paper
Taxes and Tax Reform in Ethiopia, 1990-2004In 1991 the Ethiopian Revolution Democratic Front (EPRDF) toppled the old ‘socialist’ regime that had ruled the country for seventeen years. In contrast to the previous policy regime of hard control, EPRDF initiated a wide range of reforms that...
Working Paper
Consistent Testing for Poverty DominanceIf uncertainty exists over the exact location of the poverty line or over which measure to use to compare poverty between distributions, one may want to check whether poverty dominance holds. We develop a consistent statistical test to test the null...
Working Paper
The Microeconomics of Inequality, Poverty and Market Liberalizing ReformsThis paper illustrates how the use of microeconometric techniques can be used to uncover the micro dynamics behind macro shocks. Using Mexican micro data we find out that—controlling for everything else—between 1994 and 1998 returns to personal...
Working Paper
Poverty Measurement and Theories of BeneficenceThis note points to certain similarities of orientation and outcome between Derek Parfit’s quest for a theory of beneficence and Amartya Sen’s quest for a suitable real-valued representation of poverty. It suggests that both projects, in a certain...
Working Paper
Reckoning Inter-Group Poverty Differentials in the Measurement of Aggregate PovertyIn a heterogeneous population which can be partitioned into well-defined subgroups, it is plausible that the extent of measured aggregate poverty should depend upon the distribution of poverty across the subgroups. A judgment in favour of an equal...
Working Paper
Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization‘Globalization’ implies change, and uncertainty over future change may affect household welfare. We use data on Lorenz curves over the last fifty years for a sample of 53 (mostly developing) countries. Treating each country-quintile-year as an...
Working Paper
Why Do Poverty Rates Differ From Region to Region?This paper proposes a semi-parametric method for poverty decomposition, which combines the data-generating procedure of Shorrocks and Wan (2004) with the Shapley value framework of Shorrocks (1999). Compared with the popular method of Datt and...
Working Paper
Climate change policy and power sector reform in Mexico under the ‘golden age of gas’Mexico’s low-carbon technology perspectives show lack of coherence with the rising ambition in climate change commitments, for which Mexico is internationally praised. The comparison of two recent energy reforms, corresponding to two administrations...
Working Paper
Out of School and (Probably) in WorkThis paper explores the hypothesis that the phenomenon of child labour is explicable in terms of poverty that compels a household to keep its children out of school and put them to work in the cause of the household’s survival. In exploring the link...
Working Paper
The world’s two new middlesThis paper discusses the emergence of two new middles since the Cold War, namely middle-income countries and people living above absolute poverty but below a security-from poverty-line. The paper sets out what has happened. It is argued that although...
Working Paper
How do small firms respond to tax schedule discontinuities?In this paper we study the effects of various tax schedule discontinuities on the behavior of small firms using high-quality and population-wide tax register data from South Africa. We use the bunching method to analyse how these discontinuities...
Working Paper
It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...This paper surveys 50 years of empirical research on the macroeconomic impact of aid, looking mainly at studies examining the link between aid and growth. It argues that studies dating until the late 1990s produced either contradictory or...
Working Paper
Job flows, worker flows, and churning in South AfricaIn this paper, worker and job flows are estimated using the IRP5 data from the South African Revenue Services. The data used in this paper is from the 2011–14 tax years and contains information on more than 12 million individuals and nearly 300,000...
Working Paper
Explaining Threshold Effects of Globalization on PovertyThe paper focuses on the non-linearity of the transmission of the impact of globalization on poverty and the existence of threshold effects. Institutions constitute a critical factor for the creation of threshold effects in the impact of...
Working Paper
Beyond the Notion of Security CommunityAfrican regional organizations’ increasing activity in security policy is usually approached through the concept of a ‘security community’, which can only partially clarify their difficult situation. A multilevel governance model is suggested as a...
Working Paper
Constitution Writing and Conflict ResolutionOver 1975-2003 nearly 200 new constitutions were drawn up in countries at risk of conflict, as part of peace processes and the adoption of multiparty political systems. The process of writing constitutions is considered to be very important to the...
Working Paper
Is the International Community Helping to Recreate the Pre-Conditions for War in Sierra Leone?‘In a very real sense, the conditions that spawned the war and inflicted gruesome casualties on Sierra Leone’s citizens have not disappeared’, warned the International Crisis Group. In this paper we argue that many of those conditions are being...
Working Paper
Diamonds, Foreign Aid, and the Uncertain Prospects for Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Sierra LeoneThis article examines the external and internal dimensions of post-conflict reconstruction in Sierra Leone. The United Nations, bilateral donors such as the United Kingdom, and transnational non-governmental organizations and aid agencies have been...
Working Paper
Transforming Conflict with an Economic DividendPeace can generate an economic dividend, which can be further increased by appropriate economic reform. This dividend can in turn be used to raise popular support for conflict resolution measures along the road to achieving a final political...
Working Paper
Market Size, Linkages, and ProductivityOne account of spatial concentration focuses on productivity advantages arising from market size. We investigate this for 40 regions of Japan. Our results identify important effects of a region’s own size, as well as cost linkages between producers...
Working Paper
Conflicts, Poverty and Human Development in Northern UgandaThe long-running conflict in northern Uganda has led to major violations of human rights against civilians, destruction of infrastructure, reduced access to social services, and paralysed economic activity. Creating peace and fostering reconciliation...
Working Paper
Inequality, Corruption, and Competition in the Presence of Market ImperfectionsWe analyze the relation between inequality, corruption and competition in a developing economy context where markets are imperfect. We consider an economy where different types of households (efficient and inefficient) choose to undertake production...
Working Paper
Distributional Conflict, the State, and Peacebuilding in BurundiThis paper examines the causes of conflict in Burundi and discusses strategies for building peace. The analysis of the complex relationships between distribution and group dynamics reveals that these relationships are reciprocal, implying that...
Working Paper
The Political Economy of Postwar Reconstruction in LebanonThis paper studies the postwar economic and political reconstruction in Lebanon. The paper shows that the ‘reconstruction boom’ was short-lived. The economy experienced a growth trap early in the reconstruction period, and entered a cyclical crisis...
Working Paper
Delayed marriage, contraceptive use, and breastfeedingThe rate of fertility decline has been slow in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using the Demographic and Health Surveys for 21 SSA countries between 1990 and 2014, we examine the within-country fertility patterns by wealth, applying the Bongaarts (2015)...
Working Paper
Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern EuropeThis paper offers a substantive contribution to the debate on the role of international trade on the development of emerging countries. The aim is to detect empirically the phenomenon of vulnerability induced by trade openness. The methodology adopts...
Blog
Done sensibly, agricultural development can reduce poverty in AfricaThe recovery and acceleration of economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa since about 1995 has been widely recognised. But less is known about the extent...
Working Paper
Getting Infrastructure Priorities Right in Post-Conflict ReconstructionIn this paper, an attempt is made to identify some key challenges for infrastructure sectors in post-conflict reconstruction. In spite of the Hague and Geneva Conventions, infrastructure can be damaged in conflicts, and reconstructing infrastructure...
Working Paper
The Role of Information in Technology Adoption under PovertyAn important channel through which globalization affects poverty is introducing new technologies to developing countries. Adoption of new technologies can be hindered by uncertainties about their efficiency. This paper studies the role of information...
Working Paper
Globalization, Production and PovertyThe impact of globalization on poverty is a matter of keen debate but empirical work in this area has been dominated by cross-country regressions. This paper attempts to link the more macro impacts of globalization, particularly as manifested through...
Working Paper
Income Distribution and Labour Movement in China After WTO MembershipUsing a CGE model, PRCGEM, with an updated 2002 I/O table, this paper explores how earnings will be affected in each of 40 separate industries across 31 regions (or 8 regional blocks) of China for the period 2002–07. Labour movement between regions...
Working Paper
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Total Factor Productivity in Sub-Saharan African CountriesThis study explores the effects of macroeconomic factors on total factor productivity (TFP) in 34 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1980-2002. The econometric analysis shows that external debt is negatively and significantly related to TFP...
Working Paper
The Relationship Between Income Inequality, Poverty, and GlobalizationThis paper introduces two composite indices of globalization. The first is based on the Kearney/Foreign Policy magazine and the second is obtained from principal component analysis. They indicate the level of globalization and show how globalization...
Working Paper
A Decomposition of Poverty Trends Across RegionsThe impact of globalization on global and local inequality is hotly debated in the recent literature. This study considers the separate issue of the impact of globalization on poverty through quantifying explicitly the responsiveness of poverty to...
Blog
What should Mozambique do with the revenue from natural gas projects? (Part III)At the beginning of this decade, large offshore natural gas fields were discovered in north-east Mozambique. Investment is now flowing into the...
Policy Brief
Inequality in MexicoSince 1989, inequality in Mexico has risen, declined, and risen again. The evolution of labour income inequality is at the core of this pattern. To reverse the current trend of rising inequality, access to secondary and tertiary education should...
Working Paper
Globalization's BystandersThis paper uses trade theory to examine the effects of trade liberalization on countries that do not participate in it. These include both countries that fail to participate in multilateral trade negotiations, and also countries that lie outside of...
Policy Brief
Inequality in India on the riseFollowing the introduction of economic reforms in the early 1990s, India today is achieving unprecedented per capita growth rates. Poverty reduction has also accelerated and is justly celebrated. There is great concern, however, that this growth is...
Journal Article
Climate change and developing country growthWe consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic...
Research Brief
Financing the social cash transfer scale-up in ZambiaWorking Paper
The wage-setting power of firmsUsing administrative tax records from South Africa for the period 2011–14, I find that firm wage premia explain 25 per cent of the total wage variance, 60 per cent of the gender wage gap, and 40 per cent of the gap between workers in the middle and...
Working Paper
The impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economyWe employ a micro-founded and stock-and-flow-consistent model to study the impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides a rich representation of institutional balance sheets. The relationship between bank capital...
Working Paper
Evaluating the impact of global oil prices on the SADC and the potential for increased trade in biofuels and natural gas within the regionThis paper investigates whether Southern African Development Community countries that are vulnerable to changes in oil prices could instead substitute oil and petroleum products with biofuels and gas from within the region. A pooled mean group...
Working Paper
The contribution of services to trade and development in Southern AfricaServices are the fastest growing portion of world trade and now account for nearly a quarter of global exports. This presents opportunities for emerging economies to adapt and enter new markets. Many countries in southern Africa have struggled to...
Working Paper
Motorcycle parts and aftermarket industry regional value chain in Southern AfricaThis paper provides an overview of the structure, key functions, and characteristics of the motorcycle parts and aftermarket industries in Southern Africa in order to identify challenges to and opportunities for growth in these industries. The...
Journal Special Issue
SOUTHMOD: Modelling Tax-benefit Systems in Developing CountriesSocial protection has attracted increasing interest in developing countries in recent decades and policies have been initiated in all developing regions. Cash transfer policies are already in place in many African countries, but their coverage is...