Journal Article
Is Economic Volatility Detrimental to Global Sustainability?
In a dynamic panel data model allowing for error cross-section dependence, output volatility is found to impede sustainable development. Through a financial development channel (liquidity liability ratio), output volatility exerts a significant...
Working Paper
The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration
In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers a number of dimensions...
Working Paper
The Impact of EMU on European Transition Economies
An interesting theory of transition must give a convincing account of structural adjustment and supply side improvement. In this paper, I discuss the incentives for government to undertake costly supply side improvement and how these relate to...
Working Paper
Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries
Commodity price fluctuations have been troublesome in their destabilising effects on the foreign exchange earnings of developing countries. Recently, however, attention has been drawn to their role in transmitting inflation and in inducing...
Working Paper
China in the World Economy
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominates for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical...
Working Paper
Reigniting labour productivity growth in developing countries
While the negative effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on labour productivity are still fresh in people’s minds, the COVID-19 pandemic raises concerns that productivity will continue to decline. To boost labour productivity and regain...
Working Paper
Productivity growth effects of structural reforms
Which structural reforms affect labour productivity growth in developing countries? This paper answers this question by combining the local projections method and the inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (LP-IPWRA) method. We find that...
Blog
Job Creation and the Business Cycle in Brazil
by
Túlio Cravo
March 2015
What type of business destroys proportionately more jobs during times of economic recessions and hires more in booms? This simple question motivates...
Book Chapter
Women’s Labour Supply and Household Insurance in Africa
This paper investigates whether cyclical variation in women’s labour supply in Africa contributes to smoothing household consumption. We find little support for this hypothesis. Using comparable individual data on about 0.5 million women in 30 Sub...
Working Paper
When Unstable, Growth Is Less Pro-Poor
Macroeconomic instability has been increasingly considered as a factor lowering average income growth and, in this way, is a factor slowing down poverty reduction. But it can also result in slower poverty reduction for a given average rate of growth...
Book
Varieties of Stabilization Experience
This book is a synthesis of recent work on the experiences of developing countries with stabilization programs. Critical of the orthodox "neoclassical" or "monetarist" approach of the IMF and the World Bank, the book advocates a structuralist...
Working Paper
Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange...
Working Paper
What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China’s trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are...
Working Paper
China's Business Cycles
This paper represents a first attempt to study China’s business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks...
Working Paper
The New Basel Capital Accord and Developing Countries
This paper argues that, if implemented in its current form, the new Basel Capital Accord will adversely effect developing sovereigns, corporates and banks wishing to borrow in international markets. This impact will result from the major banks’...