Working Paper
Modelling growth scenarios for biofuels in South Africa’s transport sector

South Africa has a nascent biofuels industry and emerging regulatory framework, and although water scarcity limits local supply potential, that of the southern African region appears substantial.

This paper describes the results and modelling approach of an assessment of potential biofuel demand from South Africa’s transport sector to 2050 that may respond to this supply under a number of scenarios.

Findings suggest implementing biofuel mandates will require significant additional areas of land for local supply, but that the bulk of potential demand is highly dependent on the evolution of transport technology, particularly the penetration of flex-fuel passenger cars.