Working Paper
War, Hunger and Flight

This paper uses econometric methods and case-study evidence to examine the political economy of complex humanitarian emergencies, multidimensional crises characterized by warfare, disease, hunger, and displacement. We find that stagnation and decline in real GDP, high income inequality, inflation, the response of elites to growth and distribution, military expenditures as a percentage of GNP, and conflict tradition are sources of emergencies. In addition, the slow growth in food production per capita, as a major component of slow growth in GDP per capita, contributes to emergencies. Three expected variables - adjustment and stabilization programmes, commodity terms of trade, and official development assistance per capita - do not explain emergencies. Our analysis suggests that to reduce vulnerability to emergencies, the international community needs to create a world economic order that facilitates widespread growth, accelerates food output growth, supports developing countries in reducing income inequality, assists poor countries in adjusting to external and internal equilibria, promotes good governance, and reduces the sales of armaments.