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Forecasting
Working Paper
Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Viet Nam

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries...

COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting
Working Paper
Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited

Ian Bremmer published a treatise on the stability of states built on the notion that states fall along a curve resembling a slanted “J” when plotting their stability against openness...

Democracy Fragile states Hybrid states
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