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Working Paper
The role of social protection and tax policies in cushioning crisis impacts on income and poverty in low- and middle-income countries: A rapid scoping reviewIn the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries enacted tax and social protection measures to help mitigate the economic hardship faced by individuals and households...
Social protection Taxation CrisisWorking Paper
The unintended long-run impacts of agro-terrorism in BrazilThis paper studies the unintended long-run effects of a permanent agricultural shock led by agro-terrorism in Brazil on the education and labour market...
Education Wages AgricultureWorking Paper
Social protection floor gaps and pandemic relief measures: a case for universalism?: Exploring scalability through targeted versus universalist approachesWith the expansion of social protection measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, considerations both old and new have surfaced regarding targeted versus universalist approaches...
Crisis Social protection TargetingWorking Paper
Digital labour platforms as shock absorbers: Evidence from COVID-19Digital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the last decade, enabling significant expansion in gig work worldwide. We interrogate the criticism that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate economic shocks for registered users (workers)...
COVID-19 Digital labour platforms Labour marketWorking Paper
Microsimulation approaches to studying shocks and social protection in selected developing economiesThis paper calculates automatic stabilization in Ghana, South Africa, and Ecuador to explain income cushioning amid income and demand shocks. Fiscal policies within these countries are also stress tested to gauge welfare contingencies and insurance...
Developing countries Shocks Social protectionTechnical Note
On-model adjustment of incomes during COVID-19 in SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation modelsThis note describes methods to derive employment-to-unemployment transition shares across industries during the COVID-19 pandemic and to use these shares in SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models to adjust relevant labour market variables...
COVID-19 Shocks UnemploymentTechnical Note
Deriving shocks to household consumption expenditures from the associated income shocks resulting from COVID-19This note, which forms part of a series of technical notes that complement Lastunen et al. (2021) , reports the approach used to derive shocks to household expenditures from shocks at the individual-level labour incomes...
COVID-19 Income ShocksWorking Paper
Female education and marriage in Pakistan: The role of financial shocks and marital customsThis project aims to explore the effect of wealth shocks on education and marriage for young women in Pakistan. Financial shocks are used to estimate the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage...
Marriage payments Shocks early marriageWorking Paper
Informal freelancers in the time of COVID-19: Insights from a digital matching platform in MozambiqueDespite the severe negative economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence from many contexts points to a surge in sales on online platforms, as well as shifts in the composition of demand...
COVID-19 Shocks MozambiqueWorking Paper
Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Viet NamWe develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries...
COVID-19 Pandemic ForecastingWorking Paper
Pandemics and their impact on oil and metal pricesWe examine the effect of pandemics on selected commodity prices—in particular, those of zinc, copper, lead, and oil...
Pandemic Commodities PricesWorking Paper
Effects of productivity growth on domestic savings across countries: Disentangling the roles of trend and cycleResource mobilization continues to be an important policy challenge for developing economies, raising questions as to what determines differences in saving behaviour across countries...
Saving Productivity GrowthBackground Note
Do more diversified suppliers rebound faster than concentrated suppliers in times of shocks?: Insights from KenyaIn this background note, we examine how different firms and sectors rebound or prevail in crises...
Export firms Sectors ShocksBlog
Is COVID-19 really an exogenous shock?"We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." – Albert Einstein Economists invariably divide shocks into two types: endogenous and exogenous...
COVID-19 Economics ShocksWorking Paper
What’s behind pro-poor growth?: The role of shocks and measurement errorStandard growth incidence curves describe how growth episodes impact on the overall income distribution...
Measurement error Shocks Pro-poor