Working Paper
Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of Mozambique
Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use...
Research Brief
How can agro-processing value chains be developed to strengthen regional integration in Southern Africa?
Regional integration in Africa has potential for increasing regional trade and contribute towards industrialization and economic development. Agro-processing trade offers numerous opportunities for southern Africa countries and is a potential area of...
Research Brief
Turnin’ it up a notch
Since the end of apartheid, South Africa’s economic challenges have disrupted efforts to establish a society of inclusive growth and prosperity. Understanding how South Africa can break the pattern of sluggish growth, high unemployment, inequality...
Working Paper
Constraints on the performance and competitiveness of Tanzania’s manufacturing exports
This study sought to examine the main constraints to manufacturing export competitiveness in Tanzania. Using panel data for the period 1997–2018, the study established that supply-side factors dominate demand-side factors in explaining manufacturing...
Working Paper
Firm-level employment growth in South Africa
This paper investigates the effect of innovation on employment growth at the firm level in South Africa. Innovation is typically associated with better export performance at the firm level due to productivity enhancements and new products. However...
Working Paper
Moving up the copper value chain in Southern Africa
Southern African countries—mainly Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—account for around a seventh of global production of copper. In the 2010s, they imported over a third of the associated capital goods and components from South Africa...
Working Paper
Exchange rates and firm export performance in South Africa
This paper uses detailed firm transaction data on manufactured exports to analyse the dilution of the real exchange rate-export relationship in South Africa over the period 2010 to 2014. Our empirical results show that firms that are larger, have...
Working Paper
Turnin’ it up a notch: how spillovers from foreign direct investment boost the complexity of South Africa’s exports
Countries’ economic complexity, and the associated diversification and sophistication of their exports, is a key determinant of economic growth. Understanding how South African firms learn to export more sophisticated products is, therefore, an...
Working Paper
From manufacturing-led export growth to a twenty-first-century inclusive growth strategy
Success in development over the past half-century was based on manufacturing-led export growth. Because the share of global employment in manufacturing will decline, manufacturing won’t play the same role in the coming decades. An increase in...
Working Paper
Effects of foreign aid on income through international trade
This paper presents a review of recent studies that estimate the trade effects of foreign aid. It also provides new results obtained using panel data techniques to estimate the direct effects of aid on international trade, accounting for countries’...
Working Paper
Trade liberalization and South African manufacturing
This paper provides a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour of and against an...