Prof Michael Noble CBE is a Director and Senior Research Fellow at Southern African Social Policy Research Insights. He is Emeritus Professor of Social Policy at the University of Oxford in the UK, Emeritus Fellow of Green Templeton College at the University of Oxford and a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis of the University of Essex. His main research interests are in poverty, deprivation, inequality, tax policy and social security policy particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. He specialises in quantitative research methods and tax-benefit microsimulation and is committed to evidence-informed policy making.
As a UNU-WIDER Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow, Professor Noble is involved in the SOUTHMOD - simulating tax and benefit policies for development - Phase 2. This includes managing and coordinating an important part of activities in the project, most notably in frequent and regular interactions with the SOUTHMOD team at UNU-WIDER and the national teams in Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zanzibar. Specifically, Prof Noble’s involvement includes support for the national teams in Rwanda and Zanzibar to build the initial microsimulation models for their countries, and in Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zanzibar to update the models and deliver the annual training activities.
In this paper we explore options for augmenting South Africa’s personal income tax revenue using two microsimulation models: PITMOD simulates the personal income tax system and is underpinned by a dataset comprising a full extract of anonymized...
This report documents UGAMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Uganda. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the database on which the model runs. It concludes...
This report documents TAZMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Tanzania Mainland. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the database on which the model runs...
This report documents MOZMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Mozambique. It describes the different tax-benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the database on which the model runs. It...
This report documents RWAMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Rwanda. It describes the different tax-benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the database on which the model runs. It concludes...
SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models may in some cases oversimulate taxes or benefits, generating greater expenditure, a greater number of beneficiaries, or greater amounts of taxes or taxpayers than reported in administrative data. Drawing on...
View the latest TAZMOD country report here. This report documents TAZMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Tanzania. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the...
View the latest UGAMOD country report here. This report documents UGAMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Uganda. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the...
This paper assesses the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda. Tax-benefit microsimulation can be used to explore ways in which national development goals can be achieved in a cost-effective manner, and to assess...
View the latest MOZMOD country report here. This report documents MOZMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Mozambique. It describes the different tax-benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and...
Are there enough tax payers to generate the revenue needed by governments to reduce poverty? How adequate are the social security arrangements that...
Presumptive tax, a final tax on business income, was introduced in Uganda in 1997. The latest reform to the regime in July 2020 sought to make the system more progressive, simpler, and fairer to small firms. In this work, we evaluate the reform...
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