Working Paper
Utility-Consistent Poverty in Madagascar, 2001-10

Snapshots in the Presence of Multiple Economy-Wide Shocks

We use Arndt and Simler’s (2010) utility-consistent approach to calculating poverty lines to analyse poverty in Madagascar in 2001, 2005 and 2010. Because two major political crises occurred between the survey periods, the snapshots of national poverty rising from 56.3 per cent in 2001 to 59.6 per cent in 2005, and to 61.4 per cent in 2010, are not necessarily indicative of a trend of persistently rising poverty. Complementary data indicate that in the time periods between the shocks, the well-being of the poor improved. This evidence suggests that poverty estimates for Madagascar are more a reflection of short-term shocks than of long-term trends.