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Publications (12)
Blog
Fragile and least developed countries have had their development assistance cut drastically, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. For instance, net official development assistance to sub-Saharan African countries has shrunk by 7.8% compared to 2021. And...
Blog
UK economic forecasts have improved markedly since the September 2022 mini-budget. The economic recession may now be more shallow and public borrowing lower than previously expected. However, faced with persistently high inflation and continued uncertainty caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine...
Working Paper
pdf
– COVID-19 and climate change
Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions...
Working Paper
pdf
– The political economy of compliance
This paper explores the link between trust in government, policy-making, and compliance. It focuses on a specific channel whereby citizens who are convinced that a policy is worthwhile are more motivated to comply with it. This in turn reduces the government’s cost of implementing a policy and may...
Working Paper
pdf
– Describing and explaining armed groups’ response to the pandemic in the Middle East
As COVID-19 spread worldwide, armed groups in control of territory were called to address the health emergency. However, our knowledge in this regard is limited. Specifically, it remains poorly understood why different armed groups responded to the crisis differently. Recognizing this lacuna, this...
Blog
Russia’s war in Ukraine may reach a stalemate as neither side appears in reach of a military victory. Unless a settlement can be agreed, a frozen conflict may emerge, which will delay economic recovery in Ukraine. This will also extend the cost of living crisis around the world. In February 2022...
The price and availability of energy is fundamental to the health of the global economy. The Russia–Ukraine war is intensifying an energy shock that began unfolding as the prices for oil, natural gas and coal started to recover from a COVID-19-induced slump. Energy importers among the low-income...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the disruption, by sanctions or war, of two of the world’s largest grain exporters. This means 2022 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the global food system. Yet there were concerns that this system was creaking at the seams as far back as 2007. At...
– External support and insurgency tactics
The Ukrainian state, personified by its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been heroic and has surprised many by its 'stiff resistance'. However, Ukrainian cities are increasingly under siege and Russia is sending in reinforcements. Just days into the invasion, Russia is ramping up the bombing of...
That we are living in an era of popular protest is undeniable. A quick survey of headlines from around the world — or better yet, your social media feed — reveals countless uprisings unfolding in real time. Farmers protest efforts to privatize their land in India, Argentinians march to provide women...
One of the most critical challenges in international development today is to understand how best to support peace, security, economic recovery, and legitimate political authority in fragile and conflict-affected countries. One and a half billion people live in countries affected by political...
Working Paper
pdf
This paper analyses how inequality across counties in the United States of America has shaped the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of protests. The empirical analysis combines weekly data between January and December 2020 on levels of COVID-19-related policy stringency and protest...
Displaying 12 of 12 results