Working Paper
New data, new approaches and new evidence
The Republic of South Africa faces the imperative of escaping economic stagnation. This paper seeks to synthesize results from a series of research efforts, including but not limited to the work conducted under the UNU-WIDER project on ‘Regional...
Working Paper
Diaspora externalities
Migration decisions affect those left-behind in ways that are partly taken into account by market forces (e.g., wage effects on labour markets) and for the most part these can be seen as pure externalities. Diasporas are an example of such an...
Working Paper
Six development paths in Southeast Asia
Six Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand) defied Gunnar Myrdal’s pessimistic prognosis in his 1968 volume, Asian Drama, regarding their prospects for development. In...
Working Paper
Structural transformation and international trade
How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly...
Working Paper
Impact of trade and structural change on the sub-Saharan African economies
Sub-Saharan African economies have experienced accelerated economic growth in the past two decades. In this paper we study the impact of trade-induced structural change on employment and value-added shares in sub-Saharan African economies. We find...
Working Paper
Trade sanctions and informal employment
This paper examines how trade sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unexpected and unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012. We use a difference-in-differences...
Journal Article
Is it export- or import-led growth?
The role of exports in promoting economic growth has been widely acknowledged. This paper analyses the link between exports, imports, and growth performance in Kenya using time series data. Despite trade liberalization and export promotion policies...
Working Paper
An assessment of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya’s trade
We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya’s foreign trade using quarterly trade data for the period 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The exploratory analysis shows that growth of Kenya’s merchandise exports remained resilient...
Working Paper
Economic sanctions and trade flows in the neighbourhood
We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with the sanctioned state. On the one hand, trade models suggest that trade flows should decrease as sanctions disrupt trading routes and economic ties with...
Working Paper
The effects of Chinese import penetration on firm innovation
This paper evaluates the impact of Chinese import penetration on the innovation of Vietnamese manufacturing firms from 2011 to 2015, exploiting variations in import exposure by industry specialization and instrumenting for Chinese import penetration...
Technical Note
The Uganda Revenue Authority trade data
This Technical Note describes Ugandan trade data covering import and export declarations for ten calendar years from January 2013 to December 2022, constructed from transactional-level Ugandan administrative data. The trade data series contains...
Research Brief
Food production competitiveness and regional growth in southern Africa
15-20% of local demand for poultry in South Africa is met by imports Evidence from Zambia suggests that capital investments in the value chain can increase local production Increased demand due to growing urban populations poses critical challenges...
Working Paper
Agricultural development, trade, and income distribution
This paper considers the impact of agriculture and international trade development on income distribution and economic activity in Mozambique. A social accounting matrix multiplier decomposition model is used—in particular, an extension of the...
Working Paper
Exploring the potential for growth and trade in fruit and oilseed-to-edible oils value chains following political shifts in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s persistent economic challenges since the early 1990s have been largely attributed to unpopular political decisions at the expense of building productive capacity in different sectors of the economy. Using a global value chains framework...
Working Paper
Evaluating foreign direct investment in Mozambique’s natural gas industry
The recent discovery of large fields of natural gas in Mozambique has led to great international interest and expectations of future gains. However, many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve long-term sustainable growth, whether because...
Working Paper
Is export-led growth a mirage?
The role of exports in promoting economic growth has been widely acknowledged. This paper analyses the link between exporting and growth performance in Kenya using time series data. Despite trade liberalization and export promotion policies pursued...
Working Paper
Are routine jobs moving south?
The decline of employment in middle-wage, routine task intensive jobs has been well documented for the USA. Increased offshoring towards lower-income countries such as Mexico has been proposed as a potential driver of this decline. Our analysis...
Working Paper
Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of Mozambique
Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use...
Working Paper
Transparency in extractive industry commodities trading
The paper reviews the debate about transparency in extractive industry commodities trade. It examines the obstacles to improved transparency. A critical review of the experience with estimating losses from a lack of transparency concludes that many...
Working Paper
Precarization or protection? The impact of trade and labour policies on informality
Several episodes of market-oriented reforms in developing countries have been accompanied by a significant rise in work outside of the formal economy. This paper investigates whether the impact of increased exposure to trade on formal employment is...
Working Paper
Investigating the fiscal resource curse
The term fiscal resource curse refers to countries’ inability to raise taxes from a broad base in the presence of natural resources. We employ a novel instrumental variable strategy to estimate the causal effect of resource revenues on non-resource...
Working Paper
Impact of a Single Customs Territory in the East African Community on Tanzania’s exports
The implementation of a Single Customs Territory by East African Community countries is intended to ease the movement of goods across borders by cutting costs and time through harmonization and simplification of customs documents, removal of...
Journal Article
Diaspora externalities
People make decisions as to whether to migrate based on the costs and benefits they expect for themselves and for their loved ones. Individual migration decisions affect those left behind in ways that are, for some part, taken into account by market...
Working Paper
Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa
Sub-Saharan African exports of horticultural and processed agricultural products are growing in line with the major shift towards these products in world markets. Continued growth in these exports may be vitally important for expanding returns from...