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Working Paper
The impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economyWe employ a micro-founded and stock-and-flow-consistent model to study the impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides a rich representation of institutional balance sheets. The relationship between bank capital...
Journal Article
Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in MozambiquePart of Journal Special Issue Bioenergy in Southern Africa
Working Paper
Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South AfricaWe develop a stock-and-flow-consistent model for South Africa with four financial instruments and detailed balance sheets for the household, government, financial, non-financial, and foreign sectors and the Reserve Bank. Though micro-founded, the...
Working Paper
Resource sector concessions and spatial development in Southern AfricaThis paper explores how Southern Africa can leverage its mineral resources to support growth and industrialization. It considers the aggregate and spatial effects of transport infrastructure improvements, and the relative benefits of financing these...
Working Paper
The legacy of conflict: aggregate evidence from Sierra LeoneThis paper studies the general equilibrium impact of civil war in Sierra Leone. I first use an instrumental variable (IV) strategy and geographic conflict variation to estimate reduced-form effects. I show that civil war leads to affected areas...
Working Paper
Climate change and agricultural productivity in MyanmarMyanmar is facing climate change (CC) induced changes to the productivity of their critically important rice sector over the coming century. Moreover, the recent five-year Myanmarese Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS) sets out a vision of...
Working Paper
Youth unemployment hysteresis in South AfricaThis study simulates the macro-micro economic impacts of the employment policy, focusing on hysteresis in youth unemployment in South Africa. Specifically, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calibrate the 2015 South African...
Working Paper
The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sectorThis paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020) , in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium...
Working Paper
Polarization in the South African labour marketTechnical change impacts both the employment intensity of production and the composition of occupations and skills of employment. Artificial intelligence, automation, and robots are already leading to machines undertaking routinizable tasks...
Working Paper
Evaluating foreign direct investment in Mozambique’s natural gas industryThe recent discovery of large fields of natural gas in Mozambique has led to great international interest and expectations of future gains. However, many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve long-term sustainable growth, whether because...
Working Paper
Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in MozambiqueMozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is...
Working Paper
The development of a linked modelling framework for analysing the socioeconomic impacts of energy and climate policies in South AfricaThis paper presents some methodological improvements made to the linked SATIM–eSAGE energy-economy-environment modelling framework for analysing energy and climate policy in South Africa. The improvements include the linking of the households and the...
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