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Working Paper
Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global povertyIn this paper we make estimates of the potential short-term economic impact of COVID-19 on global monetary poverty through contractions in per capita household income or consumption. Our estimates are based on three scenarios: low, medium, and high...
Working Paper
The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisisWe study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using...
Working Paper
Social protection expansions during crisis and fiscal spaceThis study provides a first attempt to contribute a large-scale assessment of whether crisis response as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic can serve as a feasible blueprint for creating durable solutions across countries. Adopting a lens on...
Working Paper
Social protection floor gaps and pandemic relief measures: a case for universalism?With the expansion of social protection measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, considerations both old and new have surfaced regarding targeted versus universalist approaches. This study focuses on how social protection coverage before the pandemic...
Working Paper
The role of social protection and tax policies in cushioning crisis impacts on income and poverty in low- and middle-income countriesIn the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries enacted tax and social protection measures to help mitigate the economic hardship faced by individuals and households. This experience underscores the need to better understand the impact of...
Blog
Above or below the poverty line: Three key questions for understanding shifts in global povertyIn 2010 and the following years, there was attention to the fact that much of global poverty had shifted to middle-income countries (for example here...
Journal Article
COVID-19 and global povertyThe study paper provides a preliminary assessment of COVID-19’s impact on global poverty in the light of IMF’s growth forecasts. It shows that the pandemic will erode many of the gains recorded over the last decade in terms of poverty reduction. Our...
Working Paper
COVID-19 and global povertyThis paper provides a preliminary assessment of COVID-19’s impact on global poverty in the light of the IMF’s April 2020 growth forecasts. The analysis shows that the pandemic will have dramatic consequences, eroding many of the gains recorded over...
Working Paper
Precarity and the pandemicThis paper makes a set of estimates for the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries and on the distribution of global poverty. We conclude there could be increases in poverty of...
Journal Article
Measuring global poverty before and during the pandemicThe contribution of this study is to question the ‘official’ estimates of global monetary poverty up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue there is a political economy of overoptimism in the measurement of global poverty. Specifically, we...
Working Paper
Corruption and crisis: do institutions matter?While the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on lives and livelihoods are well understood, we know little about the effect of the pandemic for longer-term outcomes such as corruption. We look at the historical data on political and economic...
Journal Article
Data deprivations, data gaps and digital dividesThis study draws lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for the relationship between data-driven decision making and global development. The lessons are that: (i) users should keep in mind the shifting value of data during a crisis, and the pitfalls its...
Blog
Dr Pia Rattenhuber on inequality in crises — an interviewHow do crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic influence inequality and the other way around? This year’s UN Day Dresden put a spotlight on “...
Working Paper
Data, global development, and COVID-19The COVID-19 pandemic holds at least seven lessons for the relationship between data-driven decision making, the use of artificial intelligence, and development. These are that (1) in a global crisis, the shifting value of data creates policy...
Working Paper
COVID-19 and the state: Nicaragua case studyUnlike Latin American peers, and contrary to World Health Organization recommendations, Nicaragua eschewed lockdowns and other common strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Analysts have since demonstrated how Nicaraguan authorities...
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