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Technical Note
The Uganda Revenue Authority presumptive tax dataThis technical note describes the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) presumptive tax returns data covering financial years from 2015/16 to 2022/23. The data contains 21 variables, including information on taxpayers’ characteristics, turnover, and payable...
Journal Article
A policy for the jobless youth in South AfricaThis paper uses survey and tax administrative data to analyse the effects of a sizeable employer-borne payroll tax credit for young, low-wage workers in South Africa. We find fairly limited impacts of the wage subsidy on the employment of young, low...
Journal Article
COVID-19 pandemic, household welfare and diversification strategies of smallholder farmers in UgandaAgricultural activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are subject to various risk factors that the COVID-19 compounds. Earlier studies on the effect of COVID-19 on smallholders neglect the issue of comparison with non-farm households...
Journal Article
The evolution of inequality in Mozambique 1996/97–2019/20After decades of war, Mozambique experienced sustained economic growth and poverty reduction from the mid-1990s. However, these positive dynamics started to revert from 2015. Meanwhile, inequality stagnated in the period 1996/97–2008/09, before...
Working Paper
Concealed costs: illicit economies and the erosion of the local tax base in ColombiaTax revenues are fundamental to state-building and development, particularly in the aftermath of conflict. Through the lens of the recent post-conflict experience of Colombia, this paper explores the challenges of increasing tax revenues amid...
Working Paper
Spatial consumption inequality in MozambiqueIn this paper, I show that the trend in spatial inequality in Mozambique almost entirely explains the outstanding surge in inequality in the country over the past decade, as well as its decline immediately after the pandemic, in contrast to its...
Working Paper
Wait no more: how the administration of VAT refunds impacts firm behaviourRefunds are an essential feature of well-functioning VAT systems and take up a sizeable portion of government spending. In South Africa, refunds amount to 50 percent of gross VAT collection, representing a substantial transfer from the government to...
Journal Article
Differential bunching impacts across the income distribution: evidence from tax administrative dataWe investigate the behavioural responses of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates applying empirical bunching methodology to tax administrative data from Zambia over the period from 2014 to 2021. We find evidence for...
Working Paper
The sustainability of South African fiscal policyThe public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did the government take steps to arrest the...
Working Paper
Conflict, taxation, and developmentThe impact of conflict on taxation and development has long been debated. Most studies suggest that conflict will have a depressive effect on state tax collection, negatively impacting economic growth and development. After reviewing the existing...
Working Paper
A cultural perspective on the cycle of violent conflicts in the Niger Delta region of NigeriaViolent conflicts act as disincentives for sustainable socioeconomic development in conflict-prone societies, especially in the Global South. Existing studies focus largely on economic, political, and social triggers of violent conflicts; cultural...
Working Paper
Socioeconomic inequality in Viet NamThis study provides an introduction to major discussions and core findings on inequalities in Viet Nam, drawing on a review of recent research, consideration of how inequality is discussed in legal documents, and an analysis of inequality using...
Blog
The economic ripples of rising government debtIn recent years, governments worldwide witnessed a surge in debt levels. According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached a...
Blog
The Demand for a Fair International Financial ArchitectureCritically examining the Global South’s proposals for international financial architecture reformsThis report offers a critical examination of the...
Blog
Owning our destiny: economic prospects for Africa
Yemi Kale is the Group Chief Economist of the African Export-Import Bank. In this editorial, he reflects on the prospects for Africa’s future...
Working Paper
Income inequality in South AfricaWe use individual-level tax administrative data to estimate personal income inequality among the tax-compliant population in South Africa over the period 2011–21. Our results indicate that inequality of this population rose slightly over the period...
Working Paper
Tax financing options for new social protection instrumentsIn this paper, we use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. We assess three methods to enhance the social protection system...
Journal Article
The effects of a risk-based approach to tax examinations: evidence from a tax pilot programme in TanzaniaTechnical assistance and increased use of ICT in tax administrations hold promise for greater revenue collection. Yet, the evidence on how these activities work in the real-world circumstances of developing countries is scant. The paper attempts to...