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– Lessons from Index-Based Livestock Insurance
IN PRODUCTION: SCHEDULED FOR PUBLICATION IN JUNE 2024This study outlines the origins and evolution of an international award-winning development intervention, index-based livestock insurance (IBLI), which scaled from a small pilot project in Kenya to a design that underpins drought risk management...
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– Ending Poverty While Protecting Nature
BOOK IN PRODUCTION: ESTIMATED PUBLICATION LATE 2024/EARLY 2025
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– Impact, Recovery and the Future
A key challenge for the post-COVID global economy is whether the disproportionate impact of the crisis on informal workers, who form the majority of the world’s workforce, will be acknowledged. Or whether harmful and negative stereotypes will persist.Today, despite the role of these essential...
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– Economic Transformation in a Climate-Conscious World
The pathways to economic development are changing. Environmental sustainability is no longer a choice but a necessity to maintain a competitive edge in the global economy. Just like in nature, where survival hinges on adaptation, this publication shows how nations adjust to, and take advantage of...
![Policy Brief 2/2024 cover image](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Policy-brief/Image/PB2024-2-cover-image.png?itok=Lsq6fHou)
Sustainable economic development hinges on the ability of firms and households to maintain growth and wellbeing. How have Tanzania’s firms and households performed in recent decades, and what policies can improve their resilience against future shocks?Firms that export are better able to sustain...
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– Policy lessons for low- and middle-income countries
Despite advancements for gender equality in some spheres, labour market outcomes for women continue to be worse than for men. Gender gaps in pay, labour force participation rates, and measures of job quality are stubbornly persistent and continue to hamper women’s economic empowerment globally...
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– A firm and household perspective
This book addresses performance and strategies adopted by firms and households in Tanzania to navigate shocks and achieve sustainability. How successful have firms and households been in building resilience to sustain their growth and development? Has the ability to navigate successfully through...
![Coffee cup, Ugandan currency and URA form. Image: Kalungi Kabuye / UNU-WIDER](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Research-brief/Image/RB-Tax-incentives-Uganda-2024-publication-image.jpg?itok=8e9IpToK)
While multinational corporations (MNCs) make up only 1.9% of firms operating in Uganda, they are overrepresented among tax holiday beneficiaries. New estimates reveal that Uganda’s revenue losses due to these tax expenditures peaked at USD 42 million in 2020.A new dataset allows for the first...
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The focus of this study is the idea that choice is hierarchical so that there exists an order of acquisition of durable goods and assets as real incomes increase. Two main approaches to deriving such an order are presented, the so-called Paroush approach and Item Response Theory. An empirical...
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– A Framework for Rethinking the Role of Finance in Serving the Real Economy
The study proposes an alternative framework for rethinking the role of finance in serving the real economy from the perspective of New Structural Financial Economics. It challenges conventional wisdom that developing countries should take the financial structure of developed countries as the...
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– Interrogating the Present as History
This study highlights the monopolization and exclusion from high-value knowledge in analysing divergent and, recently, partially convergent income trends across 200-odd years of the global capitalist economy. A southern lens interrogates this history, in the process showing how developing command...
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– Structural Transformation, High Inequality and Environmental Fragility
This publication examines the process of economic development of the last 50 years or so under the neoliberal model in terms of impacts on growth, inflation, income and wealth distribution and structural change. The analysis includes a historical perspective from the nineteenth century to the...
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– The Institutional Diagnostic Project
Few countries have experienced as many political and economic changes as Mozambique. A vast and diverse country, it faced a particularly difficult start after a long period of colonial dominance followed by a deadly war that formally ended only in 1992. However, despite impressive growth after multi...
Technical Note
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This Technical Note describes Ugandan trade data covering import and export declarations for ten calendar years from January 2013 to December 2022, constructed from transactional-level Ugandan administrative data. The trade data series contains transaction-level ten datasets on imports and ten on...
– A closer look
Terrorist violence has a profound influence on social attitudes, including trust in governmental institutions and attitudes towards migration and civil freedoms. Acts of terrorism cause citizens to experience a complex range of negative emotions, including anxiety, anger, sorrow, and a sense of...
![Kampala, Uganda. Image: Anna Toppari / UNU-WIDER](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Research-brief/Image/Kampala-Anna-Toppari-300px.jpg?itok=TBrtyYc1)
– Combining tax data and Google Street View images
The issue of tax non-compliance among businesses is pervasive in many developing economies, including Uganda. But to what extent do businesses comply with their tax obligations in the capital city, Kampala? Can the local environment and geographic information help predict the risk of tax non...
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It is arguable that the most important event in the world economy in recent decades has been the rise of China, from being on a par with sub-Sahara Africa at the start of economic reform to being an economic superpower today. That rise remains under-researched. Moreover, the great structural changes...
– Earnings inequality and polarization in eleven countries
Concerns about widening income inequality within countries continue to gain prominence in public debate worldwide. In the last decade, attention to the concentration of income at the very top of the distribution (top 1%) has increased. This concentration largely originates from the accumulation of...
![Oranges and yellow paper creating circular and wavy patterns. Photo by Li Zhang on Unsplash](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Research-brief/Image/rb2023-3.jpg?itok=Lm9XBGsQ)
Despite the rapid expansion of social protection across the Global South in recent decades, the ILO (2021: 19) estimates that more than half of the global population still have no access to any form of protection against poverty vulnerability and social exclusion. Globally, the share of aid that...
![Cart with collected items on the street. Photo by Gio Almonte on Unsplash](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Research-brief/Image/rb2023-4.jpg?itok=noNqyUHM)
The 1980s are sometimes referred to as the ‘lost decade’ for development. Many countries in the Global South experienced weak or no improvement in poverty indicators. Our projections are equally dire for the current decade and prospects for the SDGs unless action is taken. We project a decade of...
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Globalization is in retreat. Trade tensions between China and the United States are escalating, as illustrated by bans to the trade of semiconductor chips. The pandemic exacerbated an already difficult economic reality, raising new concerns about the resilience of global supply chains. Further...
Technical Note
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This technical note describes the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) data covering financial years 2013/14 to 2021/22. PAYE is paid by an employer who withholds personal income tax on employees’ wages and other employment incomes like benefits and allowances. The data are...
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There has been a revival of interest in the state’s role in economic development. Recent research argues that the most successful economies are those where effective states provide crucial public goods and services. The historical emergence of effective tax systems and the related processes by which...
![Cover image: Varieties of Structural Transformation](/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_150x200/public/Publications/Book/Image/9781009449953.jpg?itok=wG1vJHgi)
– Patterns, Determinants, Consequences
One of the key features of modern economic growth is the process of structural transformation, which is the movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing and services. In this study, the author identifies different routes to structural transformation that we see in the developing world. They...
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– The Changing Nature of Work and Inequality
Developed countries have experienced a polarization in earnings and in employment, namely stronger growth in the earnings and jobs for the most and least skilled workers at the expense of those in the middle. This pattern has been attributed to differences in tasks—whether a given job is routine and...
Technical Note
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– The case of Girinka in Rwanda
SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models may in some cases oversimulate taxes or benefits, generating greater expenditure, a greater number of beneficiaries, or greater amounts of taxes or taxpayers than reported in administrative data. Drawing on an example of a social benefit policy in Rwanda...
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– Differences based on gender
A recent study examines how inequality is perceived among young adults in Mozambique and how perceptions of inequality correlate with different demographic characteristics, including gender. It focuses on how young Mozambicans view the disparities between rich and poor people and why. Additionally...
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– A clearer picture of informal work
Most workers in developing countries work in the informal labour market Lower-tier informal work leads to a dead end in the countries in this study, with little opportunity to move up the job ladder While those in upper-tier informal work are the most likely to transition to formal labour market...
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– Intergenerational Mobility, Income Inequality, and Development
In the Global South economic mobility across generations or intergenerational economic mobility is in and of itself an important topic for research with consequences for policy. It concerns the 'stickiness' or otherwise of inequality because mobility is concerned with the extent to which children's...
Technical Note
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This technical note describes the compilation of a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for South Africa. SAMs are economy-wide databases that are used together with analytical techniques to strengthen evidence-based policy analysis. This SAM is based on a supply table and a use table for 2019...
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Zambia is putting in place fiscal measures to improve the efficient collection of domestic revenue to finance social and public infrastructure. This analysis shows how much more revenue can be accumulated if tax evasion was at the bare minimum. Tax gap describes the share of the potential tax...
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Along with several other African countries, Zambia has introduced a withholding system for value-added tax (VAT) to improve revenue collection and compliance. Even though VAT withholding policies are applied in several countries in Africa and similar industry-specific policies in Europe, empirical...
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– Transforming Informal Work and Livelihoods in Developing Countries
Using a range of countries from the Global South, this book examines heterogeneity within informal work by applying a common conceptual framework and empirical methodology. The country studies use panel data to study the dynamics of worker transitions between formal and heterogeneous informal work...
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– Evidence from an international research conference
This policy brief draws on the studies presented at the International Research Conference on the Effectiveness of Development Cooperation on 17–18 November 2022, in Brussels, Belgium, jointly organized by UNU-WIDER and the European Commission (DG INTPA) under its capacity as the leading entity of...
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– Findings from an international research conference
This policy brief draws on the studies presented at the International Research Conference on the Effectiveness of Development Cooperation on 17–18 November 2022, in Brussels, Belgium and jointly organized by UNU-WIDER and the European Commission (DG INTPA) under its capacity as the leading entity of...
Technical Note
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This technical note describes how the 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique was updated. New Household Budget Survey data availability, changes in the economic structure as captured by the underlying Supply and Use Tables and National Accounts as well as the frequency of previous SAM...
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– Diversity in Development
NOW IN PAPERBACK WITH REVISED PREFACE | Gunnar Myrdal published his magnum opus Asian Drama, in 1968, to conclude that Asia's development prospects were gloomy. Since then, contrary to Myrdal's expectations Asia has been transformed beyond recognition, the development of nations and living standards...
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This study reviews what we know about parental investments and children's human capital in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). First, it presents definitions and a simple analytical framework. Then discusses determinants of children's human capital in the form of cognitive skills, socioemotional...
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– A Retrospective in the Time of COVID-19
The pandemic of 1918–20 — commonly known as the Spanish flu — infected over a quarter of the world's population and killed over fifty million people. It is by far the greatest humanitarian disaster caused by an infectious disease in modern history. Epidemiologists and health scientists often draw on...
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– Structural Transformation, Inequality Dynamics, and Inclusive Growth
The developer’s dilemma is thus: developing countries seek inclusive economic development — i.e., structural transformation — sufficiently broad-based to raise the income of the poor. Inclusive economic growth requires falling income inequality to maximise income growth at the lower end of the...
Several sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have achieved substantial economic growth in the past 30 years. Likewise, access to education has considerably expanded, as reflected in rising enrolment rates for both men and women. Female labour force participation (FLFP) rates, however, are stagnant in...
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– Overcoming the developer’s dilemma
There are multiple pathways of structural transformation and different inequality dynamics of each. Rising inequality is not inevitable — policies make a difference. Broad-based economic development requires public policies to address any upward pressure on inequality. A different policy agenda for...
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Governments in low- and middle-income countries face a trade-off between raising tax revenue to strengthen social protection and creating incentives to enter formal employment. In developed countries so called in-work transfers (i.e., social benefits paid upon condition of being employed) have been...
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– Policy options for a sustainable fiscal regime
This brief provides concrete proposals on how Zambia's government could create a robust fiscal regime to achieve a steady flow of mineral revenue and encourage increased local participation in mining — while ensuring environmental sustainability.Zambia has had many mineral tax regimes and mining...
Technical Note
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This note describes methods to derive employment-to-unemployment transition shares across industries during the COVID-19 pandemic and to use these shares in SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models to adjust relevant labour market variables. The first method entails the derivation of industry...
Technical Note
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This technical note presents one of the modelling approaches used in Jara and Rattenhuber (2022) to estimate formal employment elasticities, namely the estimation of a discrete choice model of labour supply with informal employment. The approach makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit model for...
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The volume, Social Mobility in Developing Countries: Concepts, Methods, and Determinants, brings together leading scholars from a range of social science disciplines working on a variety of issues related to social mobility. Three motivations guide this joint effort: identifying important knowledge...
Technical Note
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This technical note describes the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) firm panel, which is constructed from administrative corporate income tax (CIT) returns and firm registration data for the financial years 2013/14–2019/20. The panel dataset contains over 300 variables, which allow the user to study...
Technical Note
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Agricultural subsidies may have significant productive and distributional consequences, and policy-makers need to be able to assess these impacts as a part of the overall tax and benefit policy. Microsimulation models offer a tool for such analysis also in developing countries, but their coverage...
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– Are moderate increases more sustainable?
Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) — the generation of government revenue from domestic tax and non-tax resources — plays a crucial role in building an enduring financing architecture for sustainable development. This brief summarizes the dynamics of DRM trends across the past four decades...
Book
Esta obra ofrece un análisis del sistema monetario internacional y de las reformas que es necesario emprender para que cumpla el papel activo en el siglo XXI. arte del diagnóstico según el cual no existe un sistema coherente, sino un ordenamiento ad hoc: el “no sistema” (término de viejas raíces)...
The volume, Social Mobility in Developing Countries: Concepts, Methods and Determinants, brings together leading scholars from several disciplines to advance research practice on social mobility. Three sets of motivations guide this joint effort: identifying important knowledge gaps; bringing...
Promoting social mobility is an essential task of development, and a multi-faceted one. Precarious livelihoods are widespread. Containing downward mobility is an important precondition for sustaining upward mobility. Policies of human capital development assist but do not complete the task of...
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Moçambique reportou o seu primeiro caso da COVID-19 em 22 de Março de 2020. As estimativas do PIB sugerem um forte efeito da pandemia, com uma redução de sete dos nove dos sectores de actividade analisados. No entanto, o sector agrícola – um dos mais importantes – registou um aumento de 9%, que pode...
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– Concepts, Methods, and Determinants
Social mobility — defined as the ability to move from a lower to a higher level of education or occupational status, or from a lower to a higher social class or income group — is the hope of economic development and the mantra of a good society. There are disagreements about what constitutes social...
Technical Note
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This note provides an overview of available cross-country data on ethnic conflict, tensions, and protests. First, it documents the steps taken in the selection of 16 different relevant data sources, before they are briefly described, and their distinct aspects are highlighted. Second, it includes...
Technical Note
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This technical note is the third in a series based on the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). The preceding notes have described in detail the variables contained within the GRD and the source selection procedures. In this technical note, we present the in-depth country-specific notes that...
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Presumptive tax, a final tax on business income, was introduced in Uganda in 1997. It has been reformed several times since its conception. The latest reform in July 2020 sought to make the presumptive regime more progressive, simpler and fairer to small firms. The revised rates have however raised...
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– Simulating potential Cash Plus reforms
A large share of the population in Zambia is living below the national poverty line, with most of them being extremely poor. In a bid to improve the social and economic situation, the Zambian government introduced the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) programme which provides cash payments to poor and...
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– Evidence from risk-based tax examinations
Risk-based approaches are becoming commonplace for tax authorities as a tool for enforcement. Improvements in technology, technological adoption and in some cases machine learning, hold great promise for finding the taxpayers who are most likely to avoid taxes, thus improving the detection of non...
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Tanzania, similar to most sub-Saharan countries, reported its first COVID-19 cases in March 2020. While GDP estimates suggest that the economy was less hard hit than in other African countries, some sectors have nevertheless experienced negative growth. Even with contained GDP contractions in 2020...
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In 2020, the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic caused an economic crisis that disrupted the Ugandan labour market. How large were the associated income losses across different industries and population groups? To what extent did the general tax-benefit system mitigate the adverse effects of the...
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The first cases of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa were reported in March 2020, and the impact of the pandemic has since rippled through the world and Africa. In response to the crisis and similarly to many of its peers, Ghana has enacted a variety of containment measures to confront the pandemic...
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Mozambique reported its first case of COVID-19 on 22 March 2020. GDP estimates suggest a strong pandemic effect, with a reduction in seven of nine business sectors analysed. However, the agriculture sector, one of the most important, experienced a 9% increase, which may have cushioned the pandemic...
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